🔍 Deep Dives & Analysis | Leo Stratus
It starts at 02:00 AM. The Caribbean sky, usually pitch black, is suddenly torn open not by thunder, but by the sonic signature of 150 aircraft. In this terrifyingly detailed wargame scenario—dubbed “Operation Absolute Resolve” by analysts—the target is a single building in the heart of Caracas. The objective? A surgical extraction of a head of state before his coffee gets cold.
According to this theoretical timeline, the United States doesn’t knock; it kicks the door down with a “sonic shield” of F-35 Lightning II jets. By 2:15 AM, the Russian-made air defense grid is blinded. By 2:40 AM, Delta Force operators are fast-roping onto the roof of the Ministry of Defense. And by sunrise? The geopolitical map of South America has changed. But what makes this scenario so chilling isn’t the politics—it’s the technology. We are looking at a hypothetical clash between the world’s most expensive stealth fighter and the deadliest missile shield in the Southern Hemisphere.
The Invisible Sword vs. The Russian Shield
The crux of this scenario relies on one specific technological mismatch: the F-35’s sensor fusion versus the Russian S-300VM “Antey-2500” missile system. Venezuela’s air defense is not a joke; the S-300VM is a beast capable of tracking up to 24 targets simultaneously and launching missiles at hypersonic speeds (Mach 14) to intercept incoming threats up to 250 kilometers away. In a standard engagement, an older jet like an F-16 would be painted by radar and vaporized before the pilot even saw the Venezuelan coast.
However, the scenario highlights the F-35’s “Day One” role. The jet isn’t just a fighter; it’s a flying data server. In the simulation, F-35s don’t just dodge radar; they map the enemy’s electronic emissions, locate the S-300 batteries, and jam their communications, creating a “corridor of silence” for the helicopters. This is electronic warfare at its peak—turning the S-300’s massive radar energy into a beacon for its own destruction. The simulation suggests that 150 aircraft—including jamming platforms—would be necessary to overwhelm the dense “layered defense” of Caracas, which includes Chinese JYL-1 3D radars and medium-range Buk-M2E systems.
Inside the Fortress of Fuerte Tiuna
The extraction point in this viral wargame is Fuerte Tiuna, a massive military complex south of Caracas that serves as the headquarters for the Ministry of Defense. It is effectively a city within a city, housing thousands of troops, tanks, and the residences of the top brass. The scenario posits that High Value Targets (HVTs) reside in a “safe house” deep within this compound, protected by layers of reinforced concrete and loyalist guards.
For Delta Force to succeed here, speed is the only armor. The timeline suggests a “surgical extraction” lasting minutes. Operators would breach the compound using low-yield explosives to stun rather than kill, moving fast enough to prevent the target from reaching their panic room. This mirrors the real-world vulnerability of static fortresses: no matter how thick the walls, if the enemy owns the sky and the clock, the walls become a prison. The simulation describes a “communications blackout” caused by the air armada, leaving the guards deaf and blind while the extraction team works in the dark using advanced night vision.
The Ghost of ‘Peace Delta‘
Perhaps the strangest detail in any US-Venezuela conflict scenario is the presence of American hardware on both sides. In the early 1980s, under a program called “Peace Delta,” the US sold Venezuela a fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons—the most advanced jets in Latin America at the time. For decades, Venezuelan pilots trained in Texas and flew these American birds with pride.
Today, those F-16s are ghosts. Cut off from US parts and software updates since 2006, the fleet has largely fallen into disrepair, with reports suggesting only a handful remain airworthy thanks to cannibalized parts and unauthorized fixes. In our hypothetical scenario, these aging American jets would be sitting ducks on the tarmac, unable to scramble against their modern successors. It’s a poetic, if tragic, reminder of how quickly geopolitical friends can become targets. The “Peace Delta” jets, once symbols of alliance, are now rusting relics in the shadow of the S-300s.
The Reality Check
While this “140-Minute War” makes for gripping reading, the reality is far messier. An extraction operation of this scale is a logistical nightmare that risks triggering a prolonged regional conflict. The S-300VM is mobile; if the batteries are moved from their known locations (a tactic known as “Shoot and Scoot”), the F-35s could be flying into a trap. Furthermore, Fuerte Tiuna is surrounded by dense urban terrain, making helicopter operations extremely hazardous due to the risk of small-arms fire and MANPADS (shoulder-fired missiles).
Ultimately, this scenario serves as a demonstration of capability, not intent. It highlights how the US military has shifted from the slow, ground-heavy wars of the 2000s to “Hyper-War”—fast, technologically overwhelming strikes designed to decapitate a regime before the news cycle even wakes up.
Curious about the actual range of the S-300 vs. the F-35? Click here to view our interactive map of South American Air Defense Zones and see if your flight path is in the danger zone.